The Looming Threat of Population Collapse: Countries at Risk and Potential Impacts

The global population has witnessed remarkable growth throughout history, but recent trends suggest a potential shift towards population collapse. Declining birth rates, ageing populations, and various socio-economic factors pose significant challenges to several countries worldwide. The population around the world has experienced unprecedented growth over the past century. On the other hand, recent factors indicate a potential shift towards population collapse in various regions. This section provides an overview of the research objectives, methodology, and the importance of studying population collapse.

According to a recent report commissioned by the Club of Rome, the long-feared “population bomb” may not be as imminent as previously thought. The authors of the study project that global population numbers will peak lower and sooner than expected. They estimate that the world population will reach a maximum of 8.8 billion before the middle of the century, followed by a rapid decline. This peak could occur even earlier if governments implement progressive measures to increase average incomes and education levels.

Understanding Population Collapse:

Population collapse is when a nation experiences a significant decline in its population size, leading to a host of social, economic, and political consequences. It occurs primarily due to two interrelated factors: plummeting birth rates and a rapidly aging population. These factors can exert immense pressure on healthcare systems, social security, workforce productivity, and economic growth.

This section explores the underlying causes and contributing factors to understand population decline. It examines socio-economic determinants such as changing societal norms, urbanization, access to education and healthcare, economic development, and the impact of migration patterns on population dynamics. Case studies of countries experiencing significant population collapse will be included to provide real-world examples.

Causes of Population Collapse:

Declining Birth Rates: Several countries have steadily declined birth rates over the past few decades. Factors such as increased access to education, urbanization, changing societal norms, and a focus on career development have contributed to lower fertility rates. In many developed nations, the average birth rate has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, exacerbating the challenge of population decline. The global average fertility rate dropped from 4.7 births per woman in the 1950s to 2.4 births per woman in 2020. Fertility rates below the replacement level of around 2.1 births per woman contribute to population decline. In CBO’s research projects, the fertility rate 2023 remains at about 1.66 births per woman. It eventually rises among women from ages 30 to 49. By 2030, fertility may escalate to 1.75 births per woman and stay constant through 2053.

Ageing Population: In many countries, improved healthcare, higher life expectancies, and lower mortality rates have led to an ageing population. The combination of declining birth rates and increased longevity has resulted in an inverted population pyramid, where the proportion of older individuals surpasses that of younger generations. This demographic shift significantly strains healthcare, pensions, and social support systems. In 2020 the global median age was around 31 years, compared to 24 years in 1950. By 2050, it is projected to reach 36 years. 

According to Down to Earth Governance, the ageing population will continue to double in the next three decades. 

As per an UN report, the elderly population will cross a margin of 1.6 billion in 2050 and will account for more than 16 per cent of the population worldwide. Another World Social Report 2023 report, released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, highlighted that this particular demographic shift would stir the arrangements and functionality between the young and old generations in many countries.

Countries at Risk

This section identifies and analyzes countries that are particularly vulnerable to population collapse. It includes a comprehensive examination of demographic data and trends, highlighting countries with the lowest birth rates, ageing populations, and negative population growth rates. Statistical analysis and projections will determine the countries facing the greatest risk.

Japan: Japan has long been grappling with a declining population due to low birth rates and a rapidly ageing society. With one of the lowest fertility rates globally, Japan is expected to see a sharp decline in its population from 126 million in 2020 to 88 million by 2065. The Coastal Country falls 12th in population decline as the death rate goes up and the birth rate sinks further, as stated by CNN Japan, obtaining information from the data released by local government surveys. IN 2022, the population accounted for 124.49 million. In 2023, there is a significant decline in numbers, about 556,000 compared to last year. This demographic challenge places immense pressure on the country’s healthcare system, workforce productivity, and economic growth.

South Korea: Similar to Japan, South Korea is facing a rapid decline in birth rates and an ageing population. The country’s birth rate has fallen to one of the lowest levels globally, leading to concerns about a shrinking workforce and a strain on social welfare programs. By 2060, South Korea’s population is projected to decrease by nearly 20 per cent. South Korea has consistently maintained the lowest population rate in the world since 2013. It further touched about 51.74 million in 2020. However, the census reports it to shrink to 37.66 millions by 2070.

Italy: Italy is among the European countries confronting severe population decline. The country’s low birth rate and significant emigration have resulted in a dwindling population. Foreigners comprise 8.6 per cent of the country’s population, making a total of 5.05 million. Since 2014, the population has started decreasing significantly, leading to a loss of over 1.36 million people. Italy’s demographic crisis challenges its economy, social security systems, and the long-term sustainability of its workforce.

Germany: Germany faces a similar predicament with declining birth rates and a rapidly ageing population. Germany currently leads the European Nations with a population of 82.4 million, but with decreasing birth rates, it may be overtaken by France and Britain by the year 2050. The European Commission demographic agency has predicted that Germany’s population might decline by about 14 per cent by 2060. The nation has one of the lowest birth rates globally, leading to concerns about a shrinking labour force, rising healthcare costs, and strained pension systems. To combat the issue, Germany has implemented policies to attract skilled immigrants.

Spain: Spain recorded a 17.2 per cent population growth from 2000 to 2020. However, it started facing a decline in the population of 63 municipalities. Current;y the country is currently experiencing a demographic crisis characterized by low birth rates, an ageing population, and significant emigration. The declining population challenges economic growth, social welfare systems, and the sustainability of public services.

Impacts of Population Collapse:

This section explores the socio-economic implications of population collapse on various sectors, including healthcare, labour markets, social welfare systems, and economic growth. It analyzes the challenges posed by an ageing population, reduced labour force, increased healthcare demands, strain on social security systems, and potential impacts on productivity and innovation. 

Economic Consequences: 

Population collapse can impede economic growth as declining populations result in reduced consumer spending, a shrinking labour force, and increased fiscal pressure on social security systems. Declining populations can also lead to a decline in innovation and entrepreneurship. Employment in the service sector is bound to suffer, and the community contributing towards GDP will fall. As a result, the service-providing infrastructure will have to be demolished or abandoned to maintain the economic scale. 

The dependency ratio not consisting of the labour force will pressure the productive population.

Another impact of the decline would result in a challenge in funding programmes for retirees. For instance, in Japan, the ratio of employees to retirees decreased from 5.8 in 1990 to 2.3 in 2017 and 1.4 in 2050, respectively. Additionally, a 2019 study found that China’s primary public pension system will run out of money by 2035 due to the one-child policy, which has a negative impact on the workforce. Except for Africa, this tendency is seen everywhere in the world, albeit to varying degrees.

Assuming technology and other factors are equal, big countries with huge populations often have more military might than small countries with small populations. Population reduction will reduce both the number of people who are working age and those who are of military age, hence reducing military might. Since younger employees and entrepreneurs are more likely to initiate change, a declining population also slows the rate of innovation.

If population reduction results in a persistent recession and a corresponding decline in infrastructure and basic services, it may harm people’s mental health (or morale).

Recent research from 2014 discovered significant deflationary pressures brought on by Japan’s ageing population. Another study from Slovenian in 2015 concluded that the ageing population comes with challenges like higher unemployment and entrpreunial performances. 

Social and Healthcare Challenges: 

Aging populations require increased healthcare services and long-term care, putting pressure on healthcare systems. The strain on social welfare programs, such as pensions and elderly care, becomes more pronounced as the ratio of working-age individuals to retirees increases. It can strain healthcare resources, increase the burden on pension and social security systems, and impact economic productivity.

Rapid fertility drop has had two immediate effects: the population’s natural expansion has slowed down, and the age structure has shifted from one dominated by children to one dominated by adults. These two impacts have had several negative societal implications. Improving people’s lives and the growth in the gross national product per capita comes with a rapid fertility drop. Rapid fertility decrease limits population expansion while accelerating capital formation and economic growth. Consumption growth has lagged behind accumulation growth since 1981. Declining fertility lowers the burden of student enrolment in elementary and secondary schools, improves the effectiveness of educational funding, and advances the popularization of education.

The family planning program strengthens the medical and healthcare systems regarding maternal and child healthcare. Improving people’s nutritional status is a byproduct of economic growth. Teenagers’ physical condition has continuously improved. In the coming century, population management will be made easier because of the shift in the population’s age composition. The conventional view of childbearing is forced to change from “more children, more happiness” to “better quality of children” due to the drop in fertility. Concerns over the elderly population have increased due to the country’s dramatic fall in fertility. 

Positive Impacts

Predictions of the net economic (and other) implications of a long and continuous population drop (due, for example, too-low birth rates) are primarily speculative. Numerous research findings indicate that the expected influence of population expansion on economic growth is often negligible and may even be nonexistent. According to a new meta-study, there is no connection between population increase and economic growth.

A dwindling population may have some practical benefits. The rise in GDP per person acts as a more accurate indicator of economic performance than simply concentrating on total GDP. A rough estimation of average living standards is given by GDP per person, often known as GDP per capita. Even with low or negative population growth, a nation can raise its average living standard and overall GDP. 

A remarkable economic recovery occurred in Japan and Germany when population reduction began between 2003 and 2006. In other words, both nations experienced a quicker increase in their GDP total and per capita after 2005 than they had previously. Similarly, despite the population decline from 1992–1993, Russia’s economy has developed tremendously since 1999. Similar consequences to those observed by Russia have also been felt in some Eastern European nations. These examples of resurgent growth cast doubt on the common wisdom that either population growth or economic growth cannot occur during periods of population decline.

Despite experiencing population loss between 2009 and 2017, according to recent data, Japan’s GDP per capita increased faster than that of the United States. Empirical investigations in the United States have found a negligible correlation between population increase and growth in GDP per capita. These results suggest that personal affluence can grow even during a population decline.

Lee et al. looked at data from 40 nations to better understand the economic impact of these benefits and drawbacks. They found that population increase and high birth rates considerably above replacement levels would be best for government budgets. On the other hand, considering the implications of age structure on families and governments, fertility rates near replacement levels and population stability would be most beneficial for living standards.

Moderately below replacement birth rates and population decrease would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of supplying capital for an expanding labour force is considered.

Additional advantages can result from prioritizing productivity growth that raises both the per capita and overall GDP. The workforce benefits from this strategy with more pay, better benefits, and better working conditions. Lower prices benefit customers, while larger profits benefit owners and shareholders. It also enables bigger investments in strict environmental protection, which is good for the environment. Additionally, governments receive more money through taxes to fund their operations.

The carrying capacity of the human population on Earth is another angle on the possible advantages of population reduction. The negative effects of human overpopulation would start to be balanced by a worldwide population drop. The carrying capacity of the planet’s population has been estimated to be anywhere from less than a billion to more than a trillion. The median of the high projections is around 12 billion, while the median of the low estimations is about 8 billion, according to a statistical study of past figures. 

According to this estimate, the planet’s human carrying capacity may be reaching its limit. However, given the wide range of these forecasts, we need more confidence since it is difficult to generate such projections with existing data and methodology.

Policy Responses and Solutions

This section discusses policy responses and potential solutions to address population collapse. It examines strategies implemented by countries facing significant population declines, such as incentives for increasing birth rates, immigration policies, healthcare reforms, and measures to enhance workforce participation among older adults. The effectiveness and challenges associated with these policies will be assessed.

   The reasons for and effects of population reduction differ depending on the location. While vacant homes and decaying neighbourhoods may be an issue in one municipality when the number of households is declining, this may not be the case in another. Each region has a unique strategy to account for this. However, the general strategy in all the impacted regions is to promote collaboration between housing associations, schools, care institutions, engaged citizens, and enterprises. The objective is to create solutions to issues related to jointly:

• Stakeholders determine if the housing stock needs extensive repair or energy-efficient improvements. They also consider where new dwellings should be developed and the demand for them.

• Stakeholders consider the viability of grouping or combining neighbourhood amenities, including schools, libraries, childcare centres, and healthcare services. They also consider if the accessibility of the facilities as they are now needs to be improved. 

• They also emphasize how to keep the local economy strong and expand it if feasible. This could be accomplished by reaching agreements with neighbourhood businesses, schools, and care facilities, for example, regarding how to transition school pass-outs into the workforce quickly, the accessibility of business parks or shopping areas, or the utilization of opportunities for cross-border.

Reactions and Solutions: 

– Promoting family-friendly policies: To encourage greater birth rates, governments may develop family-friendly policies, including offering inexpensive daycare, paid parental leave, and flexible work schedules.

– Investing in healthcare and education: Ensuring that people have access to high-quality education and healthcare can enable them to make educated decisions about family planning and enhance their general well-being.

– Promoting immigration and societal integration: Countries experiencing population decrease should look at methods to entice qualified immigrants and ease their societal integration, supporting the economic expansion and cultural variety.

– Supporting senior populations: To deal with the problems brought on by an ageing population, governments and communities should create comprehensive aged care systems that include healthcare, social services, and pension schemes.

– Sustainable development: By promoting sustainable behaviours and lowering resource use, we can lessen the impact of population growth on the environment and improve living standards for present and future generations.

– International cooperation: To combat population reduction worldwide, cooperation between nations is essential. The creation and application of successful policies can be facilitated by exchanging best practices, information, and resources.

It’s significant to highlight that precise techniques and solutions may change based on the particular conditions and difficulties experienced by any nation or region. Governments, legislators, and international organizations are crucial in understanding local demographic trends and developing sensible solutions to population decline.